Based on the announced resuming date of cruise operations, it is evident that cruise companies are skeptical about the short-term future and the ability to operate in the market.
With the COVID19 pandemic curve slowing down in several countries and in many parts of the world, the focus has turned on the restart of economic activities in lockdown countries, and then return to the ‘new normal’.
Tourism is one of the most sensitive economic activities in that respect, and cruise lines try to plan for the next day and the new policies and measures to be introduced by the cruise companies, the cruise ports, and destinations.
According to the latest data provided by cruise lines, August is the turning point for the industry as regards the reactivation of the cruise fleet. More than 50% of the cruise fleet capacity is expected to be reactivated in August (over 246.000 lower berths) with July being also a month in which some cruise companies are relying upon for their return in operation (29,73% of the global capacity).
A more in-depth view of the related data evolution the last few weeks during which PortEconomics.eu members Thanos Pallis, Aimilia Papachristou, and George Vaggelas are observing the cruise industry’s intentions, hints that the 2020 summer cruise season is on stake.
Only two weeks ago, the related PortGraphic, detailed an intention by the cruise industry to reassume operations starting mainly from June 2020 (when almost 50% of the capacity was expected to re-enter the market). Today June is out of the equation as only 9.6% of the capacity is expected to be reactivated. This outcome shows that cruise shipping is adapting its strategy vis-a-vis the COVID-19 crisis on a daily basis, trying to cope with the new environment that is developing for the cruise industry. With this pace, the 2020 summer cruise season is probably gone already. The fact that there is also an increase in cruise capacity reactivation during September and October of 2020, is something that further strengthens this estimation.