Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development

The latest portstudy of PortEconomics members Francesco Parola, Giovanni Satta and Theo Notteboom along with Luca Persico (University of Genoa) contributes to the extant debate on port planning and development by analysing current approaches and challenges for academics and port authorities with respect to traffic forecasting.

First, the authors examine how academics approach traffic forecasting in ports based on an extensive literature review. Next, using a sample of 28 core ports in the European Union, they provide empirical evidence on traffic forecasting challenges for, and approaches by, port authorities. The findings are discussed by focussing on five themes, i.e. formalized planning versus ad hoc investment decisions, the types and time horizons of port planning documents, forecasting methods and data sources, attitudes towards the disclosure of traffic forecasts and methods, and institutional issues affecting traffic forecasting exercises.

The port study has been published in the Maritime Economics & Logistics (volume 23, p.444–494) and is free for downloading via journal’s webpage.